Early in this decade, post-2000 recession, the mobile applications market had developed a reputational black eye– all sizzle, no steak.  The promise of revenues, followed by profits had not materialized, despite much venture capital investment in the mobile space.  The beginnings of GPS-enabled smart phones arrived, and slowly, the market started to deliver on it’s promise.  The confluence of GPS-enbabled location-based capabilities, the introduction of Apple’s iPhone that brought ease of use to the consumer masses, and the rise of Web 2.0 now leviathans like Facebook and Twittter finally brought the mobile market to a rolling boil in 2007 and 2008, just before the last U.S. economic recession.  What’s in store now that the economy seems to be thawing out, where is mobile headed next?

The challenge is getting the mobile landscape to stand still long enough to analyze it.  It changes. Often. And fast.  Domination of the mobile platform began with Palm early on, then to Blackberry, then Microsoft’s smart phone OS, only to be wrestled away by Apple’s iPhone, and most recently challenged by Google’s Android platform.  Word has it that at a recent developers’ conference, developers could join any of 3 breakout groups divided by OS development platform–  Apple, Android and Microsoft mobile OS.  The largest group assembled in the Android breakout room, second largest in the Apple room, and Microsoft’s audience was, well…. intimate.

So, in such a turbulent marketplace, what soothsayers to listen to for credible framing of the mobile future?  It turns out that it is none other than Mary Meeeker, newly minted venture capitalist at Kleiner Perkins.  For those who were around for the initial rise of the Internet in the late 1990′s, Mary Meeker rose in parallel to the popularity of the Internet as star industry research analyst for Morgan Stanley covering the Internet sector.  I have a fond memory of watching Ms. Meeker work the stage, the audience, and the room at an Industry Standard conferene out at the Dana Point Ritz Carlton before the bubble burst.  I should have known that a private fireworks display better than Boston’s annual 4th of July extravaganza that was put on especially for conference attendees was a jump-the-shark moment for the Internet.

However, Ms. Meeker has never been light on analysis.  And her most recent run at foretelling the future of the mobile market sector is worth the read. She debuted it at the Google mobile conference in February.  Although long (56 slides), it’s worth the gray matter investment.  TechCrunch has reposted it, and highlighted what they felt the most impactful slides in the deck are.  Check it out.  Really good stuff.

http://techcrunch.com/2011/02/10/meeker-mobile-slides/

Americans dropping email, portals and auctions in favor of social media and online gaming

http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/what-americans-do-online-social-media-and-games-dominate-activity/

Nielsen reported a few days ago on Internet usage in the U.S.  Although intuitive to many of us, it offers numeric confirmation of the fundamental shift in user habits online.

Social networks/blogs were where we spent the most time (906 million hours in aggregate for the month of June).  Second place went to online games, at a little less than that (407 million hours), and e-mail–the bastion of baby boomers but shunned widely by X, Y, and Z generations, clocked in at a paltry 329 million hours).

In percentage change up and down, email, portals, and instant messaging took the biggest hits, while social networking, games, and online video saw the biggest increases.

Interesting also to look at the corollary for mobile users and how it was similar/different.  In fact, given that email activity on mobile devices increased from ~37% to ~42%, one might conclude that email has moved off the desktop onto the handset for the most part, and desktops are being preserved for rich media/bandwidth intensive behavior.

Below is the hyperlink to our latest CEO peers “speed-survey,” exclusively for growth-stage CEOs.  Topic– “Preparing for Recovery?”

http://surveys.polldaddy.com/s/D3642F14267CCC14/

We at BSG Team Ventures periodically take the temperature of the markets we serve. This speed survey is no more than 10 questions, simple multiple-choice.

Knowledge is power.  Aggregated peer-provided knowledge is “actionable power.”

We make an effort to survey only those who fit the category (in this case, sitting CEOs or board member/founders of technology/science-driven growth-stage companies). [Note, if you don't fit the aforementioned description, please refrain from responding.]

Feel free to forward to the qualified CEOs in your sphere of influence.  The more data generated, the more accurate the trend lines.

All responses are anonymous due to the web-based survey technology employed.

We will forward the survey results within the next two weeks to the email address on file.  Please let us know if there is another email address you wish us to send the results to as well.

August 7th, 2009

INmobile.org released their first collective intelligence research paper today, titled “Harnessing Collective Wisdom to Forecast the Near Future of Mobility.”

INmobile.org – Harnessing Collective Wisdom to Forecast the Near Future of Mobility Aug 2009

The Idea in Brief

A problem presents an opportunity: Periods of economic slowdown such as the one we are currently operating within offers us the unique and incredibly valuable opportunity to reflect upon past periods of expansion and prepare strategically about the upcoming period of recovery and growth.�This practice should be universal but often is not and too often the methodologies used are flawed, outdated, or both. The remarkable opportunity for assessment and planning may in part be unintentionally squandered when companies continue to rely upon the same perspectives and methodologies that have disappointed in the past regardless of where they are in the economic cycle.Previous techniques to forecast vary historically based upon cost and theory.Some rely upon internal perspectives, outside or analyst input, and market data.Often they range greatly in their level of sophistication, objectivity, and conjecture.While many remain valuable, they are perhaps too often relied upon.Here we begin to offer a more innovate and arguably more accurate means to acquire that knowledge.It is the tool of collective intelligence.

The idea of collective intelligence: Collective intelligence can perhaps be best understood as the intelligence which results�from the competitive collaboration of a group of individuals. Published in 2004, The Wisdom of Crowds � Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations by James Surowiecki argues that the aggregations of information in groups results in decisions that are better than those which could have been made by any single member of the group. In Surowiecki�s book, he argues that under the right circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent and often smarter than the smartest individuals within them. When faced with a cognition problem such as, Who will win?, the idea of posing it to 100 experts was suggested as a collective �wisdom of the smart crowds exercise.As we currently seek to gain more informative and credible insights into the next five years of mobile technology, we should begin to take hold of this incredibly useful and adept tool called collective intelligence and apply it to the task.

The power of INmobile.org: INmobile.org is a private, global community of senior executives focused on mobility and convergence.This vital community of global wireless industry leaders enjoys both on-line and in-person events. Its private forum is fueled by a genuine and generous exchange of ideas, informed observations, timely information, empirical knowledge, and analysis.

The opportunity taken:In order to harness the collective intelligence and predictive abilities of INmobile.org, we interviewed one hundred senior executives from within this on-line community.We independently asked these executives the identical question during a one on one conversation and under similar circumstances.No previous conversations or predictions were referred to during these interviews in order to avoid the potential problem of group think.Based upon this methodology, it is our expectation that the whole of the INmobile.org community represented by these one hundred executives will show itself to be significantly more than the sum of its many parts.

The question:We posed the question, What industries will be most affected by the growth of wireless technology over the next five years? This question was suggested during the INmobile.org member reception held on March 31^st at the Wynn Hotel in Las Vegas, NV.�Over 200 senior executives attended the private reception where the concept of �capturing the collective intelligence� of INmobile.org was initially discussed.

The executives who answered:�The identification and selection of the 100 interviewees was done in two stages.The initial selection targeted fifty senior executives to represent the vital components of the mobile ecosystem with the broadest and most relevant perspectives for this specific question.These included mobile carriers, handset OEMs, OS vendors, and mobility focused venture capital and private equity.A call to action was then sent out to the INmobile.org membership requesting additional participants in this research project. Those additional participants provided increased geographical reach and diverse areas of mobility.Telephone interviews were conducted from April to June of 2009 and were conducted by either Matthew Corbett or Mark Newhall.

The results:Consensus predicts industries most likely affected by mobility because the predictive likelihood is heightened if and when a majority of experts independently think the same industry will be affected. These findings have been aggregated and documented in the report.

For more imformation, contact Matthew Corbett at mcorbett@bsgtv.com or at 1-617-266-4333 x241.

www.bsgtv.com

www.inmobile.org