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CEOs & VCs gather to talk about “new normals” as they face 2011

 

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Rob Day, Black Coral Capital | Michael Balmuth, Edison Ventures | Alexis Borisy, Third Rock Ventures

Once or twice a year we as a firm gather CEOs from the Boston innovation ecosystem to share thoughts amongst themselves.  Often, the format is lubricated by a panel to kick things off.  Always, the format is lubricated by an open bar and dinner.

 This Fall’s CEO gathering in early November brought together 50 or so CEOs around the topic of planning for 2011, and what to expect as a CEO. 

Whether early-stage venture, or mid-stage growth, investors are adopting a different approach to what they are looking for, how much they are putting to work, and what they expect to see as an end result.  This is proving true not just in the tech sector, but cleantech, medical device, and biotech.

 If CEOs are looking for more investment, whether growth equity, seed capital, or something in between, what are the “new normals” to think about going into 2011.  And if CEOs aren’t looking for money, but looking for exits, what are the expectations of investors in 2011 and beyond? 

 We assembled a panel of venture capital investors who all had raised new funds in the last year or so.  These investors also represented a different flavor than traditional venture capital.

 On the panel? 

  • Michael Balmuth, General Partner, Edison Venture Fund
  • Alexis Borisy, Partner, Third Rock Ventures
  • Rob Day, Partner, Black Coral Capital

 What were the “new normals” CEOs and VCs talked about?

 Here are a few that got some air time:

2011 is likely to be an economic “ground hog year.”  The current economic cycle of “flat is the new up” is here to stay for the medium term;  In taking a flash vote of the room, the overwhelming majority felt that the economic conditions in which companies are being created are not going to change for the better any time soon.  Simply turning the calendar over from 2010 to 2011 is not likely to yield a more fertile or forgiving economic climate in which to grow innovation-stage companies.  In our recent survey  of growth-stage CEOsfor Q4 2010, we noted in a prior blog post that the vast majority of CEOs had already shifted their strategies or were planning to in the near future as a direct result of an expectation that 2011 might look a lot more like the end of 2009 or 2010 than ’07 [see CEO survey pie chart below]

 

Seed rounds are becoming pervasive compared to prior quarters.  And these aren’t for Web 2.0 companies only.  CB Insights in their Q3 2010 summary demonstrated that this is a trend that is occurring in cleantech / greentech as well as healthcare IT.  All 3 investors on the panel agreed that seed funding makes sense.  Alexis Borisy, Partner at Third Rock Ventures, talked about their approach to seeding, saying that they tend to help start the companies, not just fund them, often taking an interim role on the executive team to incubate to a point of value inflection.  Michael Balmuth mentioned that although Edison Ventures doesn’t do “seed stage investing” per se, he loves to see companies that get seed rounds, as it often is an effort to drive toward profitability faster.  At that point, Edison may be more interested in a seed-funded company that achieves an early positive cash flow position than a typical heavily syndicated, multi-series venture-backed portfolio company.  Black Coral’s Rob Day added that he felt that investing in capital-efficient companies, even in the cleantech sector, was something he has advocated for a long time.  [see CB Insights graph of growth in seed round funding over last 5 trailing quarters, 2009-2010]

  • As an asset class, venture funds have lost money for a while now.  Limited partner investors in venture capital and even private equity believe that they still have to invest in this asset class because it does make money during economic or industry sector bubble periods, and to invest once a bubble has been established would mean missing the upside.  During other times, LPs try their best to pick the funds that outperform their peers.

 

  • Using investment banks to raise equity capital  should be done selectively.  If the industry is a small one, and the network is well established (like biotech investing Alexis pointed out), using an i-bank at an early stage is not the best idea.  However, in the cleantech sector where there are more total number of investors, they are internationally distributed, the industry is younger and less well-networked, and there is an imbalance in demand-supply (more money chasing fewer good deals), the investment banking solution may be just the right one.  One CEO, Larry Letteney of Second Wind in the cleantech sector, shared just such a recent positive experience in going out for their next round. 

 

  • Seek out funds that have real capital to invest, preferably “fresh.”  Each of the three funds represented on the panel had all raised funds in the last twelve months or so.  But there are a lot of funds that are at the end of their last fund.  Many are unlikely to raise another fund.  Many investors are taking meetings, but setting the bar exceedingly high because they have only an investment or two left, and they don’t want to get caught making a bad one given the challenge in delivering returns to LPs in the most recent investing vintages.  There was also a “beware” comment about funds who are making seed round investments at the end of their funds.  They are more likely to do so, as it is an easier story to message an investment mulligan to LPs if you can just say, “It was just a small seed investment, so no biggie.”  Caution was also expressed that an investor at the end of a fund making a seed investment will be less likely to have additional capital to invest even if the company is doing well.

We hope to post a video snippet of the the VC-CEO dialogue for a flavor of the evening’s conversation in the near future.

CEO Survey, Q2 2010 – Impact of Economy & Renewed Growth

We periodically survey the CEOs in our network on topics we feel are relevant to aggregate information around and rediseminate.

Below is our Q2 2010 CEO Survey.  Please participate, and we’ll share the results back with you once the survey closes in the next week or so.

Click on “Take my survey” below.  It won’t take more than a few minutes for mere mortal CEOs.  But, as you’re more the superhero CEO type, it will no doubt take you a fraction of that time to complete.

To see the results from our last survey, titled “Outpacing Competitors in the Recovery”, go to http://www.bostonsearchgroup.com/blog/3rd-quarter-innovation-ceo-survey-results-outpacing-competitors-recovery/

Coffee Stories. To pamper or not to pamper? That is the question

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CEOs and executive leaders of innovation-stage companies often ask themselves what is the best approach to employee appreciation, productivity and retention.

We’ve all heard the stories around the lengths some venture capital-backed companies go in their efforts to service the needs of their employees.  What started as the water cooler and drip coffee pot, fast-growth companies have super-sized, continuing to up the employee pampering ante–  installing company-paid cappuccino machines and Kurig coffee makers with what appears to be an endless supply and variety of coffees and teas.  Keeping well-stocked office kitchen pantries with either favored junk food, healthy snack choices, or both.  Catering lunch, breakfast, dinner, sometimes all three meals plus a midnight snack that rivals food options found on luxe cruise liners.  Car valet services, onsite dry-cleaning pick-up/drop off, massages, yoga, concierge services, onsite daycare/nanny service, bring-your-pet-to-work options.  And on and on and on, the calories and comfort food arms race continues its grim march toward caffeine OD and adult-onset diabetes.

However, there’s a moral and dilemma CEOs often face when trying to strike the right balance of perks and austerity.

The argument for pampering:  In the new knowledge-worker driven economy, there is often precious little machinery or automation.  So every time an employee walks out the door to Starbucks, Dunkin’ Donuts, the sandwich shop, or the drycleaner, the corporate engine slows down a notch.  Therefore, the logic emerges that if you can remove all interruptions for employees, you’ll get far more in productivity out of them than junk food and pampering you put in to them.

The argument against:   It’s expensive.  It creates a sense of entitlement in employees.  It creates a false sense of prosperity in a company that may be pre-revenue and in need of several more rounds of funding before it can stand on it’s own two financial legs.

Some might say that economic recessions pound the potential for excess back to square one.   OK, so perks have slowed down a bit after each economic set-back in the last decade, starting with the Internet bubble bursting and post-Y2K malaise, the aftermath of 9/11 on the U.S. economy and, most recently, the banking sector melt-down.  However, after each setback it seems a new “floor” gets set that’s just a bit tonier than the last one.

So how do CEOs handle this arms race in employee perks you ask?

Below are a few lessons learned and secrets shared by a number of CEOs who know a bit about the word “value” in serving up employee perks-

Perks Case Study A: Intra-office “micropreneurship.” The secret of the concession license

One venture-backed CEO wanted to offer some of the perks, but not all when it came to stocking the pantry.    So, rather than facing an all-or-nothing approach, the CEO decided that a business principle was in play that could be exploited in a win-win-win fashion–  what the company had as an asset was the equivalent of a monopoly.  He reasoned that employees were a captive audience.  If the CEO offered the “vendor concession” contract to an aspiring employee who wanted to make a few bucks, the company would offer exclusive stocking/inventory rights to that employee to stock the pantry.  However, in trade, the employee had to agree to offer below-market pricing on food and beverages, and also manage the “SKU requests” that the employees would log from time to time regarding food selection and preferences.  His formula in a nutshell looked like this:

-          win for employees-as the got a below market food and beverage offering, the equivalent of a “company subsidized” pantry offering

-          win for the “intra-preneur”-who was given the food concession to run, and could make a few extra bucks running the business

-          win for the company-the company didn’t have to provide all the food gratis, nor had the headache of fielding all the requests from employees

Perks Case Study B:  Serving dinner not as an entitlement, but only to the truly meritorious

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Applying post-Katrina lessons learned to Current Economic Hurricane?

I was traveling on business recently and spent some time down in New Orleans.  It was the first time I’d been there after Hurricane Katrina.  My hosts were fellow entrepreneurs, also part of EO (www.eonetwork.org) and on the board of the local chapter there.  They put together a private tour of New Orleans, with a focus on the issues that led to the spectacular and tragic failure of so many systems post-Katrina.  As one of my hosts put it, it was a breakdown of three things –   vision, leadership and communication.  The more we drove around New Orleans and the more I saw of the devastation, the more I heard of how these entrepreneurs responded to it.  I got this strange feeling of metaphoric déjà vu.  And then it dawned on me.  Katrina is a parallel for the current economic crisis America finds itself in– a sudden, unpredicted disaster for which none of us were prepared.   So I asked Jude Olinger, the current EO New Orleans Chapter President and CEO of market research firm the Olinger Group, if he had any “lessons learned” that he felt might apply to any unpredictable, catastrophic disaster.  His response? Oh yeah.  In fact, Jude had sat down several months after Katrina, and tried to capture the lessons learned.  He emailed them to me after our meeting.  And what I saw was an eerie parallel in the lessons Jude learned surviving and succeeding post-Katrina to what each of us--entrepreneur, business person, head of household, individual–could also adopt as survival strategies in one of the biggest financial hurricanes ever to hit the U.S. in modern times, perhaps the globe.   As much as entrepreneurs drive the economy, and no doubt recovery, we all should think of heeding these lessons.  In reflecting on the below, I saw them universally applicable to all current innovation sectors in which we as an executive search firm have practice areas, whether cleantech / energy, medical devices, software, biotech, distance learning / education, Internet Web 2.0, mobility / wireless.  In chatting with CEOs in each of these sectors to test my assumption, they too felt these were “universal truths.”

Below is a partial list of Jude’s lessons learned, selected for those that carry strong correlation both to a natural disaster such as Katrina as well as an economic disaster.  Following it is some interesting Q&A in dialoging with him about the experience.  And to learn more about Jude Olinger’s firm, go to www.olingergroup.com.

After crisis strikes…

-         Lesson #1 - Don’t panic but act quickly.  Stay focused on the tasks that you have to accomplish to recover.  Prioritize tasks and act upon them immediately.  Time, or rather lack of time, is your enemy.  Everyone is going to want your time… so have to prioritize and think ahead.  Anticipate things that might happen and prepare for them.  If you know you have to lay people off, and it’s a reality, then do it.

-         Lesson #2 - [In knowledge worker industries] Don’t lose your greatest asset – your employees.  Be decisive.  Communicate with employees quickly and frequently.  Be a leader and let them know the plans and intentions of the company and how they fit in.  Evaluate what you can do for them immediately and provide as much assistance as possible.  Don’t lose the key people that make you successful every day

-         Lesson #3 - Communicate with your clients and vendors quickly.  Let them know that you are still in business and intend to fulfill your obligations.  There often is  client empathy and understanding for about a week.  Then clients start to look to mitigate their risk by moving business-all or at least part of it-to another provider just to reduce their risk.   Keep them from defecting.  IF they don’t hear from you, then they’ll assume that risk is real in continuing to work with your firm..

-         Lesson #4 - Locate your advisors (accountant, insurance agent, banker, attorney) quickly and leverage their knowledge/expertise in the recovery.  These relationships should become PERSONAL…  you need to know your banker’s wife, husband, and children….  For accountant/bankers, questions like:  ”Should I do a 25% paycut?” (accountant/CPA), or “Will banks offer any forebearance in the interim?”

-         Lesson #5Be selfish with your time - everyone will want it, and you won’t have enough of it to go around.  Tend to your personal relationships and yourself.  Crisis will test you mentally, physically, and emotionally and you will need all of your strength and energy to survive it.

-         Lesson #6 - Get the facts - not things reported as fact by the media – before making any major life or business decisions.  Lots of false rumors will abound.  Filter information carefully.  Be as close to the information as possible – the further you are away from it, the less accurate it is.

-         Lesson #7 - Don’t consume too much media.  It will discourage you and take away from your focus.  Expect lots of inaccuracies in the news – see Lesson #8.

-         Lesson #8 - CASH is KING – even more so in a crisis.  Build up cash reserves.  Manage cash flow very wisely.  Be prepared for a 3 to 6 months cash flow crunch and figure out how to survive it.

-         Lesson #9 - Don’t count on ANY government assistance (FEMA assistance, SBA loans, or other federal/state assistance).  By the time you get it, if you get it, it may already be too late.

-         Lesson #10 - Keep a positive attitude - no matter how bad your situation – or you are done.  It’s the one thing that you have total control over and is critical for you to persevere.

-         Lesson #11 - Don’t expect things to be what they were before.  They won’t be the same.  Adapt, adjust, and keep moving.  It will never be “what it was before.” And don’t expect it to be.

Times of crisis test us in ways that we can never imagine.  It’s these times that makes us stronger and more determined.  Don’t let ANYTHING, not even a catastrophe, get in the way of reaching your goals and achieving success.

In further discussing the lessons Jude took away from the Katrina experience as an entrepreneur/business owner, here are some of Jude’s sentiments some three years out from ground zero:

Q: How are you entrepreneurs in New Orleans different after than before?

A: We’re smarter.  We had a chance to start from scratch, and can be anything we wanted to be (operationally).  When you lose everything, you have an opportunity to start all over again, and you can do it better the second time you build the house versus the first.  All of us have gotten smarter about who we want as clients, focusing on more profitable clients that fit the core value proposition of the company, versus taking on all comers.

Q: Has it permanently changed, or only temporarily changed your prioritization of work, family, and personal?

A: Jude said that one word was crucial on keeping balance…. “perspective.”  It’s all about perspective, keep proper perspective, and realizing that not everything may be as bad as you might think it is.  Put all things in perspective.   Events like Katrina [or the current economic crisis] create incredible stress.  Perspective is critical to subdue this stress.

Q: And “that which doesn’t kill you makes you stronger”?

A: True.  But it’s an unfinished sentence.  The end of the sentence is “but leaves deep scars.”  Think about PTSS (Post-Traumatic Stress Syndrome… Vietnam/Iraq…) Your life is turned upside down, you spend 3 years re-building it, and you always will fear that something will happen again.  “I cry a lot more.  Am much more empathetic… in a good way.   I believe the Katrina experience has allowed me to can connect to people better than before.”

Recession just in New York? A business traveler reports on ROW [rest of world]

I’ve had the opportunity to be in Asia (Hong Kong and Singapore), Silicon Valley, Boston, New York, and Europe in the last 2 months of this year.  Most of the community I’ve been with has either been technology or science-based entrepreneurs, venture capitalists and other institutional investors banking those start-ups, or professional services providers helping fast-growth companies hit their various milestones.  It struck me that I’d had the opportunity to sample how each community, country, culture, or continent was responding.

Asian perspective: “We’ve had tsunamis, bird flu, SARS, and financial crises like the Asian flu (1997 financial crisis), and this recession that’s hitting us now is likely worse than all those combined.”  U.S. and European entrepreneurs who were offshoring their manufacturing were saying that getting products prototyped in mainland China– something that used to be a problem because start-up run lengths were too short– was no problem at all.  Vast numbers of factories were laying off workers, and these same factories were more than willing to start with shorter runs and low/no guarantees to help offset the freefall in the manufacturing sector there.

Silicon Valley: Suffice it to say, out at dinner on a Monday night at a restaurant called A16 in the Marina District in San Francisco, there was no sign of recession.  We had a 7pm reservation, and almost got waved off for being 15 minutes fashionably late,  getting the last table squeezed in amongst the revelers.  Consumers were showing no spending fatigue.  Out near Sand Hill Road, it was a bit of a different story.  A few investors were shorting the stock market with their personal money, but still emphasizing that this was the time to do seed and Series A investments.  All in all, as is typical for Northern California, optimism abounded.

Boston:  Here, it sounds much more like Asia:  pull in all investing.  Only add follow-on investment to your own portfolio.  If you do invest, the going rate in some VC circles was rumored to be, “new valuation pre-money is equal to the amount of last money in.”  In other words, if the last round was $15 million, that would be the valuation, no matter how much had preceded it.  CEOs in Boston are talking about the return of “vulture capital.”  In the parking lot of a commuter rail train station, one late-night rider yelled back to another who was also getting off at the same stop, “What you doing getting home so late?” The response– “Went out with some of the people from work who got laid off today.  Cut 15 or 20.”  The first commuter answered back, “Yeah, layoff at our work today as well, but no one went out.  Stayed and worked late.”

New York: Quiet.  For the city that never sleeps, there was a really good imitation of somnambulism.  Everyone seemed to have had a prolonged Ambien moment.   The epicenter of the financial crisis seems to have brought down virtually every other sector along with it.

Europe: Or, more specifically, the UK.  With the Sterling down, and the second biggest stock market suffering similar downdrafts as that of the U.S., it’s also really quiet.  Unlike the last recession brought on by the dot-com bubble burst where Europe lagged a full 6 to 12 months behind in its slowdown, the UK in particular has suffered almost simultaneous with the U.S.

Ultimately, this was the take-away for me– no matter whether I traveled 3 thousand miles west, or 15 thousand miles east, the speed at which this downturn has traveled was faster than any plane I could catch.  It had beat me to each continent I landed on, each city I was doing business in.

As we cruise into the New Year, my wish is a hope that the recovery is also as globally instantaneous.