For the last 4 years, BSG and Dr. Allen Sinai, Chief Global Economist and Strategist, have brought together PE investors and investor-backed CEOs to review economic predictions for the upcoming year. Last year's "Trumponomics" presentation on the likely impact of Trump in 2017 was a viral hit among our circles.
This year our annual Economic Forecast was held at the Dane Estate at Pine Manor College on November 9, 2017 and we are proud to present the highlights of Dr. Sinai's predictions.
Dr. Allen Sinai is Chief Global Economist and President of Decision Economics, Inc. (DE), a U.S. and Global economic and financial market information, forecasting, and advisory firm with locations in New York, London, and Boston. He is responsible for the forecasts and analyses of the U.S. and Global economies and financial markets and translating this information to decisionmakers in financial institutions, corporations, and government. Over many decades, independent and nonpartisan, he has advised policymakers in Washington, Japan and globally, the U.S. Congress, and both Republican and Democratic Administrations on the economy, macroeconomic outlook and policies, the financial markets, and strategy.
Known for his forecast accuracy and pioneering use of a National Economic and Financial Information Systems (NEFIS) approach to forecasting and the identification and forecasting of “Big Wave” trends in the U.S. and world economies. Dr. Sinai brings to his work a unique blend of academic research, understanding of the structure and workings of the U.S. and Global economies and financial markets, extensive hands-on experience working and participating in financial markets and for financial institutions, involvement in Washington and other centers of policy, business and investment experience. Among his most well-known forecasts was advance warning and the forecasting of “The Great Recession and Financial Crises of 2006-07 to 2009” and the “L”-like anemic and unprecedented lackluster upturn thereafter instead of the widely expected “V” rebound. The collapse of the U.S. economy and financial markets was forecast well inadvance by Dr. Sinai. The subsequent Equity Bull Market, still ongoing eight years later, that began in March 2009 was forecasted by Allen in late 2008 and early 2009, cemented on March 10, 2009 by him. Earlier in his forecasting career, in 1983, Allen correctly forecasted the coming Reagan economic boom and later the Stock Market Crash of October 1987, where on the Friday night before the Monday Crash on Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week, Allen indicated the coming collapse. And, as early as 1992, he forecasted the coming 1990s economic boom and the Great Equity Bull Market of the 1990s. He correctly forecasted the Recessions of 1990-91 and 2000-01, the former even though the original published data did not say so.
While teaching at the University of Illinois-Chicago in 1971, Allen was hired by the pioneer econometric forecasting firm, Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), headed by Harvard Professor Otto Eckstein, in Lexington, Mass., with whom he worked closely for almost 15 years (1971-83), rising to Chief Financial Economist, Co-Builder of the DRI Model of the U.S. Economy, and Co-Director of the Financial Institutions Group (FIG). Hired by Lehman Brothers in 1983, he went to “Wall Street” where he became a Managing Director and Lehman’s Chief Global Economist from 1983-
96, working with all areas of the Firm and its clients. He was also Executive Vice President and Chief Economist at The Boston Company (1987-93), an investment and private banking subsidiary of Shearson Lehman Brothers. For 22 years, 1992-2014, he served on the Board of Directors of Boston Private Financial Holdings (BPFH), a national private banking and wealth management firm.
In addition to being Full Professor (from Asst. Professor) at the University of Illinois-Chicago (1966-75), Allen has taught at a number of universities and colleges, including Brandeis University (1988-96), the Sloan School of Management at MIT (1989-91), New York University (1984-88), Boston University (1981-83), the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1975-83), Lake Forest College (1964-65), and Northwestern University (1963-64). He has published over 60 articles in academic journals and books, testified before the U.S. Congress dozens of times, regularly writes Commentaries and Economic Studies for clients. He is a past President of the Eastern Economic Association (EEA) (1990), was President of the North American Economics and Financial Association (NAEFA) (2004), and a Member of the Board of Economists for Peace and Security (EPS).
Dr. Sinai has been often quoted in the written media and has frequently appeared on U.S. and international television and radio, as perhaps the most widely quoted economist of his time. He has given hundreds of speeches, lectures and seminars to organizations and associations in academics, business, financial and other settings in the U.S. and internationally. In 1992, Dr. Sinai was selected as one of the ten “Smartest People” in Boston by Boston Magazine.
As a Member of the Time Magazine Board of Economists (1980s and 1990s), Time has said of him, “Anyone who thinks economics is a dismal science has never been treated to the vivid commentaries of Allen Sinai.”
