How & What Growth-stage CEOs Are Ending 2011 & Planning for 2012

Below is the hyperlink to take the Q4 CEO peers speed-survey, exclusively for growth-stage CEOs. This survey focuses on “How & What Growth-stage CEOs are Ending 2011 & Planning for 2012″

This shouldn’t take more than 5 minutes of a busy CEO’s time–

We here at BSG Team Ventures periodically take the temperature of the markets we serve. The survey is no more than 15 questions, most simple multiple-choice.

These surveys are created and compiled by BSG Team Ventures as a courtesy to our executive ecosystem with the belief that knowledge is power. Aggregated peer-provided knowledge is “actionable power.”

To compare how you’re feeling a year later with the survey results from Q4 2010, titled “CEOs Plan for 2011”, go to http://www.bostonsearchgroup.com/blog/q4-2010-ceo-survey-of-growth-stage-companies/

We make an effort to survey only those who fit the category (in this case, sitting CEOs or board member/founders of technology/science-driven growth-stage companies). [Note, if you don't fit the aforementioned description, please refrain from responding.]

Feel free to forward to the qualified CEOs in your sphere of influence. The more data generated, the more accurate the trend lines.

All responses are anonymous due to the web-based survey technology employed.

We will forward the survey results within the next two weeks to the email address on file. Please let us know if there is another email address you wish us to send the results to as well.

Each quarter we survey growth stage CEOs who are running innovation driven companies.  This quarter,  we had more than 60 CEOs responding.  CEOs were running companies in broadly defined technology (software, hardware, semiconductor, telecom), Internet (e-commerce, media, social, entertainment), medical devices, biotech, and cleantech / renewable energy sectors.

A note on methodology.  We send these surveys only to those who fit the category (in this case, sitting CEOs or board member/founders of technology/science-driven growth-stage companies).    All responses were anonymous due to the web-based survey technology employed. The majority of respondents were in the United States, with the highest concentration on the East and West coasts (New York, Boston, and San Francisco/Silicon Valley areas).

For prior survey results from Q2 2010, titled “Impact of Economy and Renewed Growth”, go to http://www.bostonsearchgroup.com/blog/ceo-survey-results-q2-2010-%e2%80%93-impact-of-economy-renewed-growth/ .

ECONOMIC CLIMATE

The first set of questions was around the economic conditions in which each CEO felt s/he was operating.    One question we continue to ask and re-ask over the last six quarters or so targets the turbulence in the macro- economic climate.  It is interesting to compare CEO responses to the same question, “Do you anticipate a double dip in the near term future?”

* In Q3 2009, more than half  (54%) of CEOs polled were expecting a double dip, and planning accordingly

* In our Q2 2010 survey,  again 50% felt a second economic correction was likely, the biggest percentage of those CEOs believing it would be in either Q3 2010 or sometime in 2011.  The other half  of CEOs felt the specter of recession was behind them

* Currently in Q4 CEOs were consistent with prior quarters with a bit more than 50% indicating they didn’t feel a double dip was likely, and the other half of the CEOs saying either a 50/50 probability or greater (16% feeling more likely than not)

So less than 1 in 5 CEOs feel another economic dip is likely.  No CEOs selected the ” greater than 75%” probability.

It’s interesting to do a meta graph of the changing CEO sentiment on this question.  Surprisingly, the graph would be sloping downward, but not as much as many would hope.  The high point was certainly back in Q3 2009, but even throughout 2010, as many CEOs were fearful of a negative correction as those who felt it was behind us.  No doubt this “lack of confidence” index doesn’t inspire the CEO with a swashbuckling, damn-the-torpedoes-full-speed-ahead attitude toward growing their companies.  Rather, it makes CEOs think in short-term windows, perhaps 3 months at a time, with little appetite to make medium or long-term bets.

Those CEOs who felt another downturn was likey referenced several factors that might tip the scales negative–  gridlock in Congress due to midterm elections and likelihood that Democrats lose congressional majority, a belief that a bad Q4 holiday retail shopping was likely, and the persistent overhang of ongoing commercial and residential loan defaults.

As for when another economic dip might occur if it were to occur, the vast majority of CEOs pointed to Q1, 2011, with Q4 of this year and Q2 2011 tying for second at 18% each.

STRATEGY

Almost 50% of CEOs polled said that they had either made a shift in strategy in 2010, or were planning to in the near future.  Granted, growth-stage companies are prone to shifting strategy until they land upon the best formula for significant and sustainable growth.  However ~50% is a big number, and clearly a chunk of those companies have been driven to rethink their strategies because of the challenging economic climate, the concern over the future, and the possibility that 2010 might represent “the new normal” where with no economic “rising tide” no help generated to float all company boats as in periods of economic expansion in the past (1997-2000, 2005-2008, etc).

CASH FLOW

The majority of CEO survey respondents (49%) indicated that they were still planning on burning cash over the next 2 quarters.  24% indicated they would be profitable.  CEO comments regarding this question indicated an overwhelming drive toward cash flow break even.  That was the big push and focus for their companies in 2010, and if they hadn’t achieved it yet, they were gunning to by end of the first quarter of 2011.  CEOs also commented that they were trying to run their companies at break even, with any extra EBIT being reinvested back into the company for additional growth.

COST REDUCTION PLANS

When asked what were the top 3 areas CEOs were targeting for cost reduction, the following table summarizes their responses, representing a combination of spend reduction and staff reduction in non-core areas.  There was a preference by CEOs to favor non-staff cuts over cutting headcount if at all possible, but many acknowledged that in order to make meaningful cuts, staff had  to be considered in the equation.

CEO responses when asked about increasesin spend were logical.  The top three in order were sales, marketing, and R&D.  Many of the comments about this question noted the fact that outside of directly growing revenues, additional spend was hard to build in when many CEOs are driving toward a minimum cash-neutral mandate and economic uncertainties are driving CEOs to think conservatively rather than expansively.

[Click on "more" below for remaining 8 slides and narrative from Q4 2010 CEO survey]

RAISING CAPITAL

The largest segment of CEO survey respondents (40%) listed themselves as having raised capital in the last 12 months, and also planning on raising additional equity in the coming 12.  For those who indicated “other,” most of these CEOs had raised capital quite a while ago (2 or more years ago), were at cash flow positive, and some who were looking at liquidity event in the next few quarters, subject to market conditions.

OUTSOURCING & OFFSHORING

A quarter of CEOs surveyed responded that they were unlikely to ever use/need outsourcing or offshore resources to grow their businesses.

However, almost 70% of CEOs were using some combination of outsourced resources, whether domestic or offshore, full-time or project-based.  Those CEOs using domestic resources were the largest segment at 22%, while those with full-time offshore resources tallied at about 14%.  Nearly one in four CEOs had used contract (non-full-time) outsourced resources in the last 12 months.  A number of CEOs highlighted the fact that although they were users of offshore staff in some capacity, it was difficult to “get right,” and often the experience was less than positive early on in the relationship and took a great deal of work before CEOs could declare it truly accretive.

In answer to where global outsourced/offshore resources were being most utilized, manufacturing, product development, and customer service were the three biggest areas.  One in 5 CEOS (20%)  had already established an international sales presence located abroad.

GROWTH-COMPANY CLIMATE

Do CEOs feel it will be harder to grow companies in the future than in the recent past?  This is a question that many entrepreneurs who look to undertake a new venture (and venture capitalists looking to invest in them) are often quick to ask.

CEO responses were much more evenly distributed than one might think– slightly greater than a third of CEOs indicate “about the same” difficulty, a bit less than a third feel “somewhat more difficult,” and 27% indicating that they thought it would likely be “easier in the next 5 vs. the last 5 years.”  Many of the comments of CEOs responding “easier” pointed to the fact that advances in technology have allowed entrepreneurs to stand up companies for less cash and a lot faster than in years past.   Those CEOs who said it would be harder all pointed to the capital markets, and the medium-term challenges in both raising capital, and achieving liquidity.

DEBT LENDER APPETITE

CEOs were closely split on the question of whether debt has been harder, easier, or about the same to procure in the last few quarters.  37% indicated about the same,  33% responded that it feels worse, and 27% conceded that it appeared easier to get debt now than in the trailing 6 months or so.  However, CEOs commented that even if debt lending had stayed the same or improved slightly in the last six months, over the last year or two lenders have tightened up a great deal, and the lending climate today compared to 2008 is substantially worse.

FEDERAL POLICY IMPACTS

More than three-quarters of CEOs surveyed indicated that there was no impact on their companies due to  changes in federal policy, be it pending capital gains changes, mandatory healthcare, or potential tax increases.  Of those CEOs who did register an impact, the majority (10%) indicated that they would be offsetting any negative impact via headcount reduction.

CEO comments focused on the negative impact of rising healthcare costs as the biggest contributor to any decisions they were considering that were directly attributable to federal policy changes.

EQUITY INVESTOR APPETITE

CEO respondents reported that they saw equity investors as having become more bearish in their investing, with almost 37% holding that opinion.  In contrast, more than 25% of CEOs felt investors appear more willing to put money to work in the next two quarters than in recent past.  CEOs commented that investors don’t want to put money into B rounds, and the investing profile “is a barbell– 259,000 angels poured $17.6 billion into more than 57,000 startups last year, and there are a number of very well funded late-stage private equity firms looking to put $20-$40 million to work per opportunity. But almost nothing in between.”  Other comments indicated that even though investors may be more interested in putting their money to work, those same investors are squeezing valuations harder than ever and their expectations for return are increasingly difficult to meet as an operating CEO.

PRIMARY SURVEY INDUSTRY SECTORS

Of the 50+ CEOs who responded, 25% were running software companies, 16% cleantech, 15$ biotech, 10% interactive media/Internet, and 4% medical devices.  Much of the other 32% of CEO respondents were in the services sector across various industry sectors.

Location of the Companies Surveyed

The majority of responding CEOs were from the New England region (66%), 10% of CEOs’ companies were located in the Rocky Mountain region, with smaller numbers in Northern California (2%), Canada (4%) and the UK( 2%).

TOPIC: How & What Growth-stage CEOs Are Planning for 2011

Below is the hyperlink to take the Q4 CEO peers speed-survey, exclusively for growth-stage CEOs.  This survey focuses on “How & What Growth-stage CEOs are Planning for 2011″

This shouldn’t take more than 5 minutes of a busy CEO’s time–

We here at BSG Team Ventures periodically take the temperature of the markets we serve. The survey is no more than 15 questions, most simple multiple-choice.

These surveys are created and compiled by BSG Team Ventures as a courtesy to our executive ecosystem with the belief that knowledge is power.  Aggregated peer-provided knowledge is “actionable power.”

For the survey results from Q2 2010, titled “Impact of Economy & Renewed Growth Planning”, go to http://www.bostonsearchgroup.com/blog/ceo-survey-results-q2-2010-%E2%80%93-impact-of-economy-renewed-growth/

We make an effort to survey only those who fit the category (in this case, sitting CEOs or board member/founders of technology/science-driven growth-stage companies). [Note, if you don't fit the aforementioned description, please refrain from responding.]

Feel free to forward to the qualified CEOs in your sphere of influence. The more data generated, the more accurate the trend lines.

All responses are anonymous due to the web-based survey technology employed.

We will forward the survey results within the next two weeks to the email address on file. Please let us know if there is another email address you wish us to send the results to as well.

The Q2 2010 CEO survey has logged more than 50 respondents, so although additional responses may roll in, we’re posting the results in order to make the feedback to those who participated as timely as possible.   Additional responses are unlikely to skew the percentages significantly.

We at BSG Team Ventures periodically take the temperature of the markets we serve.  Below are the results.  This survey’s focus was on the economic recovery (is it indeed here, and if so, measured how?), and where CEOs are budgeting their spend in the 2010 recovery year.

A note on methodology.  We send these surveys only to those who fit the category (in this case, sitting CEOs or board member/founders of technology/science-driven growth-stage companies).    All responses were anonymous due to the web-based survey technology employed. The majority of respondents were in the United States, with the highest concentration on the East and West coasts (New York, Boston, and San Francisco/Silicon Valley areas).

For prior survey results from Q3 2009, titled “Strategy & Outpacing Your Competitors in the Recovery”, go to http://www.bostonsearchgroup.com/blog/3rd-quarter-innovation-ceo-survey-results-outpacing-competitors-recovery/.

The response to the first question clearly demonstrates that CEO sentiment versus our last survey has demonstrably shifted, with almost 75% of CEOs indicating that the economy has either bottomed out, or is recovering.

Similarly, for those growth-stage tech or sciences driven companies, when looking at revenues, more than 40% of CEOs reported that revenues were up from Q1 to Q2, with the largest percentage revenue increases in the 1-25% range.  Approximately 10% of CEOs reported revenue increases of 25% or more.

Below is our Q2 2010 CEO Survey.  Please participate, and we’ll share the results back with you once the survey closes in the next week or so.

Click on “Take my survey” below.  It won’t take more than a few minutes for mere mortal CEOs.  But, as you’re more the superhero CEO type, it will no doubt take you a fraction of that time to complete.

To see the results from our last survey, titled “Outpacing Competitors in the Recovery”, go to http://www.bostonsearchgroup.com/blog/3rd-quarter-innovation-ceo-survey-results-outpacing-competitors-recovery/

Every few months we survey the innovation-stage community of CEOs with the goal of leveraging our C-level relationships as executive recruiters to generate collective wisdom to share back.    We hope below you find insights that help to run your companies more strategically.

In August, we surveyed our CEO community and had more than 60 CEOs participate.  Thanks to all who contributed.   The theme of this survey was centered around whether a different strategy is required to succeed post-recovery than that which was in place pre-recession.  These CEOs came from those practice areas in which we focus, and included broad based technology companies in the media, software, mobile and telecom sectors, Biotechnology, medical devices, and cleantech / renewable energy.

The 60-plus participating companies were spread across the growth-stage spectrum, ranging from pre-revenue through profitable/shipping product, most being seed-funded through post-Series C, as well as private equity-backed–

To set the stage for the survey questions, when asked when CEOs were expecting the recovery to materially reach their companies, the results were still quite bearish, with more than 50% responding Q2 2010 or later–

Although entrepreneurs are supposed to be eternal optimists, when asked what sort of recovery CEOS expected, again, the majority picked the worst of the alternatives, with more than half opting for a “W” recovery (in graphical terms, a double dip, with the last year starting September 2008 to now equalling the first “u” of the “W,” and another anticipated dip between now and Q2 2010 or later.  Almost as bearish, 28% of CEOs chose an “L” recovery, indicating that they felt “recovery” was really better defined as a flatting out of the downward trendline, but no corresponding upward rebound–

The next several survey questions focused on business strategy.  58% of CEOs indicated that they were not planning on pursuing the same strategy after the recession than before–

In executing on their strategies, CEOs responded somewhat intuitively that sales & business development functions would be two of the most important executive level functions that would help them in executing successfully post-recovery.  Somewhat less intuitively, the third most important functional area ranked was product development–

The last strategy question posed to CEOs was whether - if a majority of the CEOs were executing on a different strategy in post-recovery than pre-recession – did CEOs feel that the same executive team they had could execute effectively on both.  More than a third of CEOs surveyed indicated, no, their current executive teams were not the right teams for their new post-recovery strategies.

As for their companies’ financial condition, 60% CEOs responding indicated they were still burning cash, 15% were cash flow break-even, and 25% were running their companies in cash positive position–

And answering the perennial question as to whether CEOs were planning on raising equity capital in the near future, slightly more than half responded in the affirmative–

In conclusion, the survey pointed up the fact that innovation-stage companies are still very cautious around the economic forecast, have recast their strategies as different from pre-recession in preparation for the recovery, but still have some retooling to do within their executive teams to optimize the chances of outstripping their competitors in 2010.

Thanks again to the CEOs who participated.  Knowledge is power.  Collective knowledge is actionable.

Below is the hyperlink to our latest CEO peers “speed-survey,” exclusively for growth-stage CEOs.  Topic– “Preparing for Recovery?”

http://surveys.polldaddy.com/s/D3642F14267CCC14/

We at BSG Team Ventures periodically take the temperature of the markets we serve. This speed survey is no more than 10 questions, simple multiple-choice.

Knowledge is power.  Aggregated peer-provided knowledge is “actionable power.”

We make an effort to survey only those who fit the category (in this case, sitting CEOs or board member/founders of technology/science-driven growth-stage companies). [Note, if you don't fit the aforementioned description, please refrain from responding.]

Feel free to forward to the qualified CEOs in your sphere of influence.  The more data generated, the more accurate the trend lines.

All responses are anonymous due to the web-based survey technology employed.

We will forward the survey results within the next two weeks to the email address on file.  Please let us know if there is another email address you wish us to send the results to as well.

- New CEO didn’t integrate with rest of incumbent team

- Business model changed (different horses for different courses)

- Leadership fatigue (plateauing company for too long a period)

- CEO “Peter Principle,” and

- CEO getting sideways with Board of Director(s)/ board chemistry

Given survey responses, it appears the bell curve peak is in the 20-40% reduction in headcount.  The group of CEOs who indicated these reductions were approximately half of the 60 CEO respondents.

• •    40% or more staff reductions? ~ 10% of total CEOs surveyed
• •    Less than 20% staff reductions? ~ About 17% of all CEO respondents

Winner on this question was “more than 9 months,” with more than 40% of the CEOs.  Runners-up were the “0-to-6 months of cash” CEOs, evenly split with 25% saying 3 to 6 months, and another 25% saying “less than 3 months.”  What this may indicate is that there is a bimodal distribution of funding in the market –those who are well-funded, with 9 months or more, and those companies who are running out of cash (popular definition = less than 6 months of cash remaining).  This is reinforced by the fact that very few companies responded that they had 7-9 months of cash (less than 10% of companies).  Therefore, one might imagine that those companies who are shortest on cash are also those who are making the deepest cuts in staffing.  In addition, that there may be another round of cuts in store for those low-cash companies if they can’t get another round closed soon.

Top implied answer here?   Don’t raise a venture round in 2009.  And this is what the largest slug of CEOs responded with (33%).  Of those who are going to try to raise in 2009,

• •    one-third of CEOs see a flat round
• •    16% feel they’ll get an up round
• •    and almost half (45%) are predicting a down round

Winner for this question shows some great optimism however, with about 1/3 each of the CEOs responding answering with either “revenues up 1 to 25%”  or “Up more than 50%.”

There was an intentional effort to get a fairly even distribution of venture-backed CEO respondents for this survey, to try to avoid sector bias.  We were fortunate to have at least 10% (6 or more companies) from each of life sciences / biotech, medical devices, and the cleantech sectors.  Software/Internet/telecom was the largest category represented, with 42% of CEOs hailing from this sector.

BONUS SLIDE

Q: If YOU could survey your peer CEOs, what question(s) are both urgent AND important to running your business you’d like us to consider asking in future polls?

This was one of the most rewarding questions for which to see the responses.  Fully half of the CEOs polled had a question they’d like to pose to their peers, and some CEOs had several.  Below is a partial list of questions we’ll choose from in follow-on surveys.  If any of those CEOs would like to respond individually to any of the questions below, feel free to post a comment on this blog entry and we’ll post it for public consumption (clustered by general question subcategory as well as by industry sector).  Of course, the winning question asked by one of you CEOs, just to validate that venture capital-backed CEOs are-if anything-self-aware, pragmatic, and not fatally over-optimistic:

“What will CEOs do if their company fails?!”
1.   Cost-related questions

• •    Approaches or success stories in restructuring debt to the company’s advantage.
• •    Is it better to reduce headcount 20%, go to a 4-day work week, or reduce salaries by 20%?
• •    In addition to headcount reductions (if any), what type of expenses are you reducing?  Are you delaying new projects/initiatives?  How have investors reacted to this?
• •    Will you consider outsourcing some of your product development to make cost variable, at the expense of some know-how then being outside the company?

2.    Sales/Marketing/Revenue-related questions

• •    How are you using the economic downturn to improve your business position/model?
• •    What are you going to spend more money on in 2009 than in 2008?
• •    What changes in the sales cycle are you seeing in the last 6months, 2 months, currently?  What does the resultant trend point to for 2009 and what actions are you taking in response?
• •    How has your visibility into the level of future business changed in the last 3-6 months?Asked another way – what level of confidence do you have in your current forecast of business?
• •    (1) What emphasis do you place on marketing in your organization? (2) What do you consider the top 3 most important elements of marketing to be?
• •    How will you as CEO deal with longer term rate issues if you are a service business as it seems all labor rates are being pushed down?
• •    The number one reason why clients buy your product is? (cost, quality, service, other?)

3.    Funding/exit/valuation questions

• •    Are you finding lending lines out there?
• •    If an acquirer made an offer to buy your company today, but at a multiple less than what it would be in a strong economy, would you consider it, or wait until the economy improves so you could get a higher valuation?
• •    Are you considering merging your company with another? Are you looking at merger partners as a legitimate exit option in 2009?
• •    Are you looking to current investors or new investors for additional rounds of financing?

4.    Board of Directors/investor-related questions

• •    How will venture capital investing change in 2009?
• •    What is your satisfaction with your Board’s ability to fundraise in the future? (I think the current environment highlights a board’s function as protector of value through fundraising and too few board members are good at it)?
• •    Compensation for outside board members?

5.    Staffing/talent questions

• •    How are you balancing full time versus contract employees?
• •    How are you retaining employees during these tough times?
• •    What kind of retention ideas have you considered to make sure your key folks don’t bail for a more stable environment?
• •    What skills are you as CEO still looking to hire?
• •    What do you do to conserve cash? attract customers?
• •    How many of you CEOs have proposed reducing people to part time levels and adding equity compensation instead of releasing them all together?

6.    Economy-related questions

• •    When do you predict the market conditions to take a turn for the better?

There a few industry-specific questions CEOs wanted to ask their peer as well:

Life sciences/biotech-related questions

• •    What kind of deal structures are you seeing in liquidity-directed partnerships? What kind of partnerships, if any, are you envisioning for discovery stage assets?

Medical devices-related questions

• •    How do you expect reimbursement to be influenced during the next administration?

A total of about 60 CEOs responded over the last 10 days, across various industry sectors, more than 90% of respondents located in the Northeast U.S.

The first question and responses show that almost half of the companies have already taken preemptive downsizing measures.  It appears that more than 40% of venture-backed CEOs in their leadership wisdom have already in the last several months made adjustments.  And 10% more are looking to do so in the next 30 days or so.

The question that wasn’t asked but we’ll try to do a follow up around is, “When would you make a second round of cuts, and what economic or other indicators would you look at and need to see move more negatively to make these cuts?”

In a quick analysis, given survey responses, it appears the bell curve peak is in the 20-40% reduction in headcount.  The group of CEOs who indicated these reductions were approximately half of the 60 CEO respondents.

• 40% or more staff reductions? ~ 10% of total CEOs surveyed

•    Less than 20% staff reductions? ~ About 17% of all CEO respondents