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CEO Peer Survey, August 2009 — Preparing for Recovery?

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Below is the hyperlink to our latest CEO peers “speed-survey,” exclusively for growth-stage CEOs.  Topic– “Preparing for Recovery?”

http://surveys.polldaddy.com/s/D3642F14267CCC14/

We at BSG Team Ventures periodically take the temperature of the markets we serve. This speed survey is no more than 10 questions, simple multiple-choice.

Knowledge is power.  Aggregated peer-provided knowledge is “actionable power.”

We make an effort to survey only those who fit the category (in this case, sitting CEOs or board member/founders of technology/science-driven growth-stage companies). [Note, if you don't fit the aforementioned description, please refrain from responding.]

Feel free to forward to the qualified CEOs in your sphere of influence.  The more data generated, the more accurate the trend lines.

All responses are anonymous due to the web-based survey technology employed.

We will forward the survey results within the next two weeks to the email address on file.  Please let us know if there is another email address you wish us to send the results to as well.

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Collective Intelligence Research Paper

August 7th, 2009

INmobile.org released their first collective intelligence research paper today, titled “Harnessing Collective Wisdom to Forecast the Near Future of Mobility.”

INmobile.org – Harnessing Collective Wisdom to Forecast the Near Future of Mobility Aug 2009

 

The Idea in Brief

 

A problem presents an opportunity: Periods of economic slowdown such as the one we are currently operating within offers us the unique and incredibly valuable opportunity to reflect upon past periods of expansion and prepare strategically about the upcoming period of recovery and growth.�This practice should be universal but often is not and too often the methodologies used are flawed, outdated, or both. The remarkable opportunity for assessment and planning may in part be unintentionally squandered when companies continue to rely upon the same perspectives and methodologies that have disappointed in the past regardless of where they are in the economic cycle.Previous techniques to forecast vary historically based upon cost and theory.Some rely upon internal perspectives, outside or analyst input, and market data.Often they range greatly in their level of sophistication, objectivity, and conjecture.While many remain valuable, they are perhaps too often relied upon.Here we begin to offer a more innovate and arguably more accurate means to acquire that knowledge.It is the tool of collective intelligence.

 

The idea of collective intelligence: Collective intelligence can perhaps be best understood as the intelligence which results�from the competitive collaboration of a group of individuals. Published in 2004, The Wisdom of Crowds � Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations by James Surowiecki argues that the aggregations of information in groups results in decisions that are better than those which could have been made by any single member of the group. In Surowiecki�s book, he argues that under the right circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent and often smarter than the smartest individuals within them. When faced with a cognition problem such as, Who will win?, the idea of posing it to 100 experts was suggested as a collective �wisdom of the smart crowds exercise.As we currently seek to gain more informative and credible insights into the next five years of mobile technology, we should begin to take hold of this incredibly useful and adept tool called collective intelligence and apply it to the task.

 

The power of INmobile.org: INmobile.org is a private, global community of senior executives focused on mobility and convergence.This vital community of global wireless industry leaders enjoys both on-line and in-person events. Its private forum is fueled by a genuine and generous exchange of ideas, informed observations, timely information, empirical knowledge, and analysis.

 

The opportunity taken:In order to harness the collective intelligence and predictive abilities of INmobile.org, we interviewed one hundred senior executives from within this on-line community.We independently asked these executives the identical question during a one on one conversation and under similar circumstances.No previous conversations or predictions were referred to during these interviews in order to avoid the potential problem of group think.Based upon this methodology, it is our expectation that the whole of the INmobile.org community represented by these one hundred executives will show itself to be significantly more than the sum of its many parts.

 

The question:We posed the question, What industries will be most affected by the growth of wireless technology over the next five years? This question was suggested during the INmobile.org member reception held on March 31st at the Wynn Hotel in Las Vegas, NV.�Over 200 senior executives attended the private reception where the concept of �capturing the collective intelligence� of INmobile.org was initially discussed.

 

The executives who answered:�The identification and selection of the 100 interviewees was done in two stages.The initial selection targeted fifty senior executives to represent the vital components of the mobile ecosystem with the broadest and most relevant perspectives for this specific question.These included mobile carriers, handset OEMs, OS vendors, and mobility focused venture capital and private equity.A call to action was then sent out to the INmobile.org membership requesting additional participants in this research project. Those additional participants provided increased geographical reach and diverse areas of mobility.Telephone interviews were conducted from April to June of 2009 and were conducted by either Matthew Corbett or Mark Newhall.

 

The results:Consensus predicts industries most likely affected by mobility because the predictive likelihood is heightened if and when a majority of experts independently think the same industry will be affected. These findings have been aggregated and documented in the report.

 

 

 

For more imformation, contact Matthew Corbett at mcorbett@bsgtv.com or at 1-617-266-4333 x241.

 

www.bsgtv.com

www.inmobile.org

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Most Common Reasons Why CEOs Fail– Venture Capital’s Perspective

After quite a bit of discussion was sparked on an earlier blog post in March around the 7 Reasons why early and growth-stage CEOs fail (http://www.bostonsearchgroup.com/blog/7-reasons-ceos-fail/ )in technology-driven innovation-stage companies, we thought we’d get the venture capital perspective.  Below are the results.  The two biggest reasons behind CEO failure revolved around a CEO’s inability to balance revenues and burn-rate (23%), tied with the CEO’s inability to hire well at the VP level, with repeat VP-level failure/turnover (also ~23%).  The balance of forced ranking of CEO failure include categories such as–

- New CEO didn’t integrate with rest of incumbent team

- Business model changed (different horses for different courses)

- Leadership fatigue (plateauing company for too long a period)

- CEO “Peter Principle,” and

- CEO getting sideways with Board of Director(s)/ board chemistry

vc-survey-graphic-results-march-2009-why-ceos-fail1

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7 Reasons CEOs Fail

Executive Organization Chart

Is executive retention a problem one might ask?  From our own experiences in search, we felt it was.  Educators and consultants alike have taken a more objective and statistically relevant approach to outlining the problem. A 2001 study of executive failure done by Executive Search Information Exchange pegged the average failure rate for recruited executives in their first year at between 40% and 50%.  More recently Michael Watkins,a recognized thought leader in executive leadership and author of The First 90 Days, has revealed from his research that a staggering 58% of new executives hired from the outside fail in their new position within 18 months.

The cost of executive failure? A Mercer study estimated that it's often more than $500,000 or 2.5 times salary. And this doesn't include organizational, opportunity, productivity, and transitional costs for the new executive (Mercer et al, 1999). Including these other components of executive hiring, the calculus for fully loaded cost to the organization per failure at the executive level can top a million dollars (Fortune Magazine).

After spending a decade or more as an executive recruiter working on early & growth-stage CEO searches, it seems worthwhile to take a look-back on some of the reasons CEOs seem to fail.  In fairness, we’re a boutique firm, so the sample set isn’t hundreds of searches.  However, it’s also more than anecdotal, as for every CEO search we’ve done, there was a high probably that there were several CEOs who had already come before our search, and in doing a thorough CEO replacement search, we are students of why predecessors failed in order to ensure we don’t repeat others’ past mistakes.  Another macro observation is that these failures don’t seem to be different from practice area to practice area, or geographic region to geographic region.  We’re a multi-specialty firm, yet we don’t see that software/ Internet/ media CEOs fail for dramatically different reasons than medical device CEOs or cleantech or biotech CEOs.   Nor is there great variability when you look at CEO searches in one innovation center versus another. With presence in Boston and New England, New York and the Tri-State area, Silicon Valley/San Francisco, and London/Cambridge, England, we’ve been able to test this and haven’t witnessed much foundational difference one area versus another.

The following 7 reasons below cover the vast majority of CEO executive failures we’ve seen:

1.      Failure point #1: Founder “Peter principle.This has been well-documented by others, most notably by John Hamm, venture capitalist at VSP Capital and leadership development coach who authored a Harvard Business Review article a few years back, titled “Why Entrepreneurs Don’t Scale.”  To set up John’s observations, most of our time as executive recruiters, we focus on helping early-stage companies jump the leadership chasm from entrepreneurial to professional leadership.  More often than not, there is absolute certainty that a casualty will occur– the only question is whether that casualty will be the founder(s), or the company.   Where venture capital or private equity is involved, all is done to avoid the latter in favor of the former.  Regardless, it is too rare an occurrence when this collision between founder CEO, growth mandate, and outside investors ends positively, and if the company survives, it has to deal with the emotional baggage of shedding this first founder layer and all the pain this brings with it.   John outlines four management tendencies that work for smaller-company environments but become Achilles’ heels as these CEOs try to scale their companies. The first tendency is loyalty to founding team mates. In entrepreneurial mode, you need to lead as though you’re in charge of a combat unit on the wrong side of enemy lines where anyone on your team is a keeper. However, in larger company growth mode, blind loyalty can become a liability.  At some point, it may be required that the rest of the team that started the company with the CEO may need to be changed out for an executive team with experience at the “growth-stage” versus just the “start-up” stage.   The second tendency, task orientation, is critical in driving toward a big initial product launch, but excessive attention to detail can cause a growing organization to either suffocate under such leadership–one that can’t generate creative ideas or momentum without being instructed by the CEO–or lose sight of its long-term goals. The third tendency, single-mindedness, is important in a visionary CEO who is unleashing a revolutionary product or service on the world.  However,  this can limit the company’s potential as it grows, as all good ideas aren’t always born from one person.  In addition, often a lack of self-awareness or “emotional intelligence” can create a large blind spot around what isn’t working with the original idea, and instead of an ability to iterate to a better but related idea for the marketplace, the founder CEO can become caught up in the initial “vision” and stick to it regardless of external market input that would indicate changes to the initial value proposition are needed to capture broader market adoption. The fourth tendency, working in isolation, is fine for the brilliant scientist focused on an ingenious idea, technology or science. But it’s a non-starter for a leader whose expanding organization increasingly relies on people other than the CEO. There is also a significant difference in skill set required when the company grows beyond a single layer of management, requiring, VPs who manage directors, who may manage managers.  Managing through a multi-layer management system requires a very different managerial toolbox.  As the summary for the article outlines, “Leaders who scale deal honestly with problems and quickly weed out nonperformers. They see past distractions and establish strategic priorities. They learn how to deal effectively with diverse employees, customers, and external constituencies. And, most important, they make the company’s continuing health and welfare their top concern.”

2.      Failure point #2: Unable to “imbed” with the existing team. This is all about forging meaningful bonds, trust, and a following with the existing executive team/staff/employees as the “newcomer.”  This is most often the cause for CEO failure when an outside CEO is brought in as the first successor to the founder CEO.  We refer to it as “organ rejection.”  The host organism (the company) has a high degree of the founder CEO’s DNA in it.  That founder CEO has proven that they are a miracle worker, coming up with the idea, building it out through proof-of-concept on a shoestring budget, getting venture or other funding for the idea, that the rest of the employees who imprinted on the founder CEO “reject” the new CEO as an “imposter” or “foreign matter.”

3.      Failure point #3: Getting sideways with the board. As executive recruiters, we hear this often.  A CEO, whether founder or non-founder, doesn’t gel with the Board of Directors.  In the case of a growth-stage company, there is often outside capital involved, and investors who serve as part or all of the board of directors.  A CEO’s inability to quickly understand the drivers of each board member, and inability to build a communication bridge that may be unique to each board member, is very likely to fail, regardless of whether growth milestones are being hit or not.  One a board member loses faith in a CEO, it’s very hard to win that faith back.  Activities that often alienate a board include hiring issues (holding on to existing employees too long, or holding off on hiring into a key role, board communication issues (not sharing the bad with the good), lack of realism around budgets and burn rate and unwillingness to make the tough decisions, etc.)

4. Failure point #4: Inability to balance revenue/burn rate There is always a constant struggle between CEO and investors if the company has a net burn rate (spending more cash than revenue coming in the door).  Just last week, I heard from a venture capitalist who said that a CEO, during a board meeting, said that he was unwilling to cut the burn rate for fear of being unable to scale fast enough to meet demand once the product “got traction.”  The VC then said, “After the board meeting, I got a call from one of the other investors, expressing concern that the current CEO just didn’t understand the realities of the situation, and he felt it was time to start a search for a new CEO who did.”  Often, this is a circumstance where the CEO has come from a larger company environment, and has rarely if ever faced a situation where “out of cash,” is a literal term, versus just a euphemism for asking the parent corporation for some more capital.

5.      Failure point #5: Inability to hire well. There is an expression, “the first time, shame on you, the second time, shame on me.” This is what the board of directors often employs when a CEO can’t find the right VP level executive to successfully fill a key seat on the management team.  Often, it’s the VP Sales.  When the product is still in development, it’s often the VP Engineering.  However, if the CEO churns either of these positions with several candidates that don’t end up meeting board expectations, ultimately the board feels it’s perhaps not these VPs, but rather the CEO who needs to be changed out.  When a VP Sales commits to a revenue target, and then misses it repeatedly, often the CEO and board decide to make a change in the VP Sales.  multiple replacement in a single role, VP Sales, or VP Engineering) (blaming someone else

6.      Failure point #6: Change of business model. Part of emerging & growth stage company building is the iterative approach to finding the magic business model that takes root and thrives.  At times, founders, investors, and early team members develop a thesis on what model they’re going to chase first, and hire a CEO into that thesis.  However, as often as not, the early iterations miss their mark, and the ultimate business model that evolves as the winner is one that doesn’t play to the strengths of the earlier CEO hired.   In this eventuality, it’s much like “no fault insurance.” Neither driver is at fault, but in the best interests of the company, the earlier CEO hired needs to be changed out to make room for one better tailored for the market approach the company finally settles on as bedrock on which to scale the company.

7.      Failure point #7: Leadership fatigue.  At times, running a company turns into a grind.  The company doesn’t grow as fast as anticipated, or the magic formula for business model doesn’t materialize.  Or the executive team doesn’t come together as all wished at the beginning.  At this point, the company doesn’t fail or flame out, but nor does it continue to show healthy growth and positive direction.  Sometimes, a company grows for a bit, then plateaus and efforts to move the proverbial needle continue to fall short.  One of my favorite expressions comes to mind, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over yet expecting a different result.”  If most all other variants and permutations have been tried, no doubt it’s possible that leadership fatigue has set in and the company is in need of a fresh horse.

There certainly are other subsidiary reasons that less often cause failure-a CEO not being technical enough to shepherd a pre-revenue start-up through early product development stages into successful commercialization, or not enough industry domain expertise in an area where a Rolodex of relationships are critical to obtaining early customer wins or market credibility.  However, for the most part, these and many other one-off failures function as exceptions to the larger CEO failure points outlined above.

One of the questions that naturally follows in exploring the most typical reasons for failure is what steps, actions, or changes can be made to optimize the probability for CEO success?  Is there “another way of doing it?”   One of the best ways we’ve found is to split the Chairman and CEO roles.  However, this is a topic for another discussion.  It’s something that’s actually done in the UK as SOP, and even out in Silicon Valley more than in Boston or New York.  We’ve executed our fair share of executive searches in each, and comparing the perspectives around leadership-sharing held by venture or private equity investors is interesting grist for further analysis.

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February 2009 Growth-stage CEO Survey, preliminary results

Although only preliminary, below are the early returns on the February 2009 growth-stage CEO survey for technology & science-driven companies.  The majority of the CEOs surveyed are from venture capital-backed or institutionally funded companies.   The theme remained the economy for the February survey.  The first question was around what the prevailing sentiments were for a recovery.  Unfortunately, although perhaps not unexpectedly, less than 25% of CEOs surveyed expect the economy to improve before Q4 2009, and more than half the CEOs don’t expect the economy to shows significant signs of recovery until 2010.

Growth-stage CEO survey, guestimates on economic recovery

As CEO, when do you predict the market conditions to take a turn for the better?

When CEOs were asked whether they were still seriously considering cuts in Q2, 2009, more than 25% of the early respondents answered affirmatively.

As CEO, are you seriously considering further downsizing in Q2 2009

As CEO, are you seriously considering further downsizing in Q2 2009

We will post the rest of the survey responses in the next 10 days or so, and will include updates in the interim.

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VC-backed CEO Survey– Recession-proofing for ‘09?

With everyone in the growth-stage tech and sciences sector battening down the hatches in advance of the continued buffeting the innovation sector is expecting in 2009, we launched an online survey of VC-backed CEOs to take the temperature.   Suffice it to say, the answers, not counter-intuitive, were all various versions of “cold.”

A total of about 60 CEOs responded over the last 10 days, across various industry sectors, more than 90% of respondents located in the Northeast U.S.

The first question and responses show that almost half of the companies have already taken preemptive downsizing measures.  It appears that more than 40% of venture-backed CEOs in their leadership wisdom have already in the last several months made adjustments.  And 10% more are looking to do so in the next 30 days or so.

The question that wasn’t asked but we’ll try to do a follow up around is, “When would you make a second round of cuts, and what economic or other indicators would you look at and need to see move more negatively to make these cuts?”

In a quick analysis, given survey responses, it appears the bell curve peak is in the 20-40% reduction in headcount.  The group of CEOs who indicated these reductions were approximately half of the 60 CEO respondents.

  • 40% or more staff reductions? ~ 10% of total CEOs surveyed

•    Less than 20% staff reductions? ~ About 17% of all CEO respondents

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